Greetings fellow citizens and I welcome you all to yet another of our weekly updates from Transparency International Zambia (TI-Z)’s 2021 Elections Project.
As we have been stating since the beginning of these updates, our motive for sharing the different observations we are making in the electoral process is to give members of the public and other stakeholders relevant information about what is happening on the ground as we draw closer to the 12th August elections. It is also our hope that stakeholders such as the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and the Zambia Police Service, among others, will be able to pick up information that they may find useful to follow up on in order to correct any anomalies or resolve particular issues. Ultimately, our involvement in the electoral process in this manner is aimed at contributing to the enhancement of the integrity of the process in its entirety.
Today’s update is the 10th in this series, and will see us sharing the findings of our Electoral Incidence Report covering the period May to June 2021.
- Rationale for this analysis
As TI-Z, we have been monitoring the electoral process leading up to the 2021 general elections. As part of our long-term monitoring of the process and in line with our conviction that monitoring elections is not just about the actual day of voting, we have since monitored various aspects of the process, such as the adoption of candidates by the different political parties and the nomination process that took place across the country. We have further been monitoring the activities being conducted by different political parties during the ongoing campaign period. All this is aimed at generating credible and reliable information to feed into our overall assessment of the credibility of the 2021 elections. Additionally, our hope is that the results of this analysis will also provide a basis upon which key stakeholders, such as voters, non-governmental actors,
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political parties, observer groups, and government entities, can evaluate the credibility of the elections across the entirety of the electoral process. - Methodology of the analysis
Over the last few months, we have as TI-Z trained and deployed a total of 148 long-term monitors in 6 out of Zambia’s 10 provinces. Long-term monitors are monitors who are monitoring the electoral process in its entirety rather than just on the day of elections. The 6 provinces where these are deployed are Eastern, Southern, Luapula, Lusaka, Copperbelt and North-Western provinces. In terms of constituencies, the monitors are present in 74 out of the total 156 constituencies in Zambia, representing a 47% coverage of constituencies as far as TI-Z’s long-term monitoring is concerned. TI-Z has also deployed 68 short-term monitors in the remaining 4 provinces (Western, Central, Northern and Muchinga), whose monitoring will be restricted to the actual day of voting and the immediate aftermath.
The long-term monitors have been collecting incidence reports since the commencement of the nomination period in May 2021, which reports they submit to TI-Z on a weekly basis or as often as the situation on the ground warrants. These reports were the basis upon which this analysis was conducted. An incidence is defined as an electoral occurrence or event that has elements of electoral malpractice or electoral corruption. - Results of the analysis
During the months of May and June 2021, TI-Z monitored a total of 85 electoral events across the country in general, but specifically in the 6 provinces. According to the analysis, Copperbelt and North-Western provinces accounted for the majority of these events, with 34 and 19 events respectively. These were followed by Luapula province with 12 events, Southern province with 9, and Lusaka province with 8. The analysis showed that with 3 events, Eastern Province recorded the least number of electoral events for the months of May and June 2021.
It is worth noting that the relatively low number of electoral events across the 6 provinces was largely a result of the restrictions that the ECZ has placed on political parties’ campaign activities, as well as the slowing down or complete suspension of campaigns by political parties in June during the 21 days’ period of national mourning that was declared in honour of the late first Republican President Dr. Kenneth Kaunda.
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Out of the 85 electoral events monitored in May and June, 44 electoral incidents of abusive language, violence and bribery were recorded, representing a 51.8% incidence rate for those types of anomalies across the 6 provinces. Of the 44 incidents of abusive language, violence and bribery that were recorded, Lusaka province had the highest incidence rate at 75%, followed by Luapula province with 58.3% and Copperbelt province with 55.9%. Southern and North-Western provinces had incidence rates of 44.4% and 36.8% respectively, with Eastern province having the lowest incidence rate of the 6 provinces, at 33.3%.
In terms of categorization, most of the incidences were classified as bribery and accounted for 18 cases or 40.9% of all incidences. These were followed by 16 incidences of abusive language, accounting for 36.3% of all incidences. Of the 16 cases of abusive language, 3 had elements of violence. Cases of violence alone accounted for 9 incidences or 20.4% of all incidences recorded in May and June.
In order to further delve into the details of the 44 incidents of abusive language, violence and bribery, we analyzed the distribution of these incidences by political party, and that analysis revealed that the vast majority of these incidences were linked to the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND).
Out of the 44 incidences recorded, the PF and UPND collectively accounted for 34 cases or 77.3%, with 21 of these cases or 47.7% being linked to the PF, 8 cases or 18.2% being linked to the UPND, and 5 cases or 11.4% being clashes between the two parties, but with no clear indication of which of them was the perpetrator.
The analysis further showed that independent candidates were linked to 2 of the incidences recorded, accounting for 4.5%, while 7 or 15.9% of the incidences of political violence and malpractice that were recorded could not be attributed to specific political parties due to difficulties in identifying the perpetrators.
In terms of our next steps concerning these incidences, particularly those of bribery, TI-Z will forward the full details of these to the ECZ and law enforcement agencies for them to follow up and possibly take appropriate action.
We however wish to make an earnest appeal to all political parties and their candidates, as well as independents, to refrain from all forms of electoral malpractices as they conduct their campaigns. The Electoral Code of Conduct as contained in the Electoral Process Act No.35 of 2016 clearly outlaws such malpractices, and all players in this process have a duty and obligation to adhere to the provisions of the Act, and of the Code of Conduct in particular.
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Lastly, we further urge the ECZ and law enforcement agencies to be more vigilant in ensuring that stakeholders in the electoral process do not abuse the process by failing to adhere to the legal provisions governing the process. The ECZ in particular have not covered themselves in glory in that regard and we challenge them to pull up their socks in the two weeks remaining before polling day.
Many thanks for yet again watching our update today, and we will see you again next Tuesday with another update. God bless you, and God bless Zambia.
Maurice K. Nyambe
TI-Z Executive Director
For more details, get in touch with the TI-Z Advocacy, Policy and Research Specialist, Mr. Bright Chizonde on bchizonde@tizambia.org.zm
